US EIA: Dangote Refinery Drives Seven-Fold Surge in Nigeria’s Petroleum Exports

 US EIA: Dangote Refinery Drives Seven-Fold Surge in Nigeria’s Petroleum Exports

Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have increased seven-fold since 2023, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery identified as the major driver of the surge, according to the latest report by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 bpd in 2023.

The increase, according to the agency, has strengthened Nigeria’s position in the international petroleum products market, particularly as supply disruptions have constrained refined petroleum product availability in some regions.

The report attributed much of the growth to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in January 2024.

Citing data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa, the EIA said exports accounted for about 350,000 bpd of the 561,000 bpd shipped during the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 46,000 bpd in 2023.

The agency said the refinery’s rising output had reshaped Nigeria’s petroleum products market by reducing dependence on imports while increasing domestic supply and exports.

“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA said.

Before the Dangote refinery commenced operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products for both domestic and international markets.

However, shipments increased substantially following the Dangote refinery’s start-up and received another boost after maintenance and expansion work was completed in February 2026.

The EIA noted that the refinery’s crude distillation capacity was increased from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd following the expansion programme, allowing it to produce and supply more refined petroleum products.

The agency also said petroleum product shipments benefited from disruptions to global energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which increased demand for alternative sources of refined petroleum products.

Domestic Supply Rises

Nigeria’s domestic seaborne petroleum product shipments also recorded significant growth during the period under review.

According to the EIA, intra-Nigerian shipments reached 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, up from 81,000 bpd in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023.

The figures reflect the growing role of the Dangote refinery in distributing refined petroleum products across different parts of the country.

The increased domestic supply has also coincided with a sharp reduction in Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

The EIA said Nigeria imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023, but seaborne imports had fallen to less than 130,000 bpd by the second quarter of 2026.

Nigerian Products Gain European Market Share

Beyond the domestic market, demand for Nigerian refined petroleum products has also increased in international markets.

Vortexa data cited by the EIA showed that Nigerian petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and just 15,000 bpd in 2023.

The development highlights the growing importance of Nigeria as a supplier of refined petroleum products to international markets.

The EIA said the expansion of refining capacity has improved Nigeria’s energy security while supporting domestic fuel supply and strengthening the country’s position as a regional and international exporter of refined petroleum products.

Dangote Plans Further Expansion

Meanwhile, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028.

If completed as planned, the expansion would bring the refinery’s total capacity to about 1.4 million bpd.

The refinery’s Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, said long-lead equipment for the expansion had already been procured, while construction contracts were being awarded.

The planned expansion could further increase Nigeria’s refining capacity, reduce reliance on imported petroleum products and strengthen the country’s position as a major exporter of refined fuels.